CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 11 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Mid-American · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–180%
ATS vs close
2–340%
Model margin MAE
13.7
Market margin MAE
10.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Northern Illinois @ ToledoFinal 3–42
Model
pred Toledo 11.4 · actual Toledo 39
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.6 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Kent State @ Ball StateFinal 13–17
Model
pred Ball State 8.0 · actual Ball State 4
winner Ball State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ OhioFinal 20–24
Model
pred Ohio 6.3 · actual Ohio 4
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ AkronFinal 10–44
Model
pred Akron 5.3 · actual Akron 34
winner Akron ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.7 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ Eastern MichiganFinal 21–27
Model
pred Bowling Green 0.1 · actual Eastern Michigan 6
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.