CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 10 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · Mid-American · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
16.5
Market margin MAE
15.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Central Michigan @ Western MichiganFinal 21–24
Model
pred Western Michigan 13.3 · actual Western Michigan 3
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ Bowling GreenFinal 28–3
Model
pred Buffalo 2.4 · actual Buffalo 25
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.6 · mkt 27.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.