CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 1 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · Mid-American · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–280%
ATS vs close
6–460%
Model margin MAE
11.4
Market margin MAE
10.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Buffalo @ MinnesotaFinal 10–23
Model
pred Minnesota 20.0 · actual Minnesota 13
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ Texas StateFinal 27–52
Model
pred Texas State 17.8 · actual Texas State 25
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Ball State @ PurdueFinal 0–31
Model
pred Purdue 14.2 · actual Purdue 31
winner Purdue ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.8 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ San José StateFinal 16–14
Model
pred San José State 13.0 · actual Central Michigan 2
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Toledo @ KentuckyFinal 16–24
Model
pred Kentucky 9.2 · actual Kentucky 8
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Ohio @ RutgersFinal 31–34
Model
pred Rutgers 8.9 · actual Rutgers 3
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Miami (OH) @ WisconsinFinal 0–17
Model
pred Wisconsin 7.3 · actual Wisconsin 17
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +18.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Michigan StateFinal 6–23
Model
pred Michigan State 6.5 · actual Michigan State 17
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ MassachusettsFinal 42–10
Model
pred Massachusetts 0.8 · actual Temple 32
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.8 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ AkronFinal 10–0
Model
pred Wyoming 1.7 · actual Wyoming 10
winner Wyoming ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.