CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 9 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
20.2
Market margin MAE
17.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ Western MichiganFinal 21–52
Model
pred Western Michigan 18.0 · actual Western Michigan 31
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +19.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH)Final 7–46
Model
pred Miami (OH) 9.7 · actual Miami (OH) 39
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.3 · mkt 28.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ ToledoFinal 41–26
Model
pred Toledo 7.2 · actual Bowling Green 15
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ OhioFinal 16–47
Model
pred Ohio 4.9 · actual Ohio 31
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.1 · mkt 27.0 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ AkronFinal 21–25
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 11.7 · actual Akron 4
winner Eastern Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ Ball StateFinal 23–25
Model
pred Northern Illinois 13.1 · actual Ball State 2
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 15.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.