CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 8 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
5–183%
Model margin MAE
3.2
Market margin MAE
7.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ Bowling GreenFinal 6–27
Model
pred Bowling Green 18.8 · actual Bowling Green 21
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Ohio @ Miami (OH)Final 20–30
Model
pred Miami (OH) 9.4 · actual Miami (OH) 10
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Ball State @ VanderbiltFinal 14–24
Model
pred Vanderbilt 8.0 · actual Vanderbilt 10
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 17.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ Eastern MichiganFinal 34–38
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 5.4 · actual Eastern Michigan 4
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ BuffaloFinal 48–41
Model
pred Buffalo 1.0 · actual Western Michigan 7
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Northern IllinoisFinal 13–6
Model
pred Toledo 1.9 · actual Toledo 7
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 10.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.