CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 7 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
15.0
Market margin MAE
10.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Akron @ Western MichiganFinal 24–34
Model
pred Western Michigan 15.8 · actual Western Michigan 10
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ Eastern MichiganFinal 38–14
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 1.8 · actual Miami (OH) 24
winner Eastern Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.8 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ Bowling GreenFinal 17–7
Model
pred Northern Illinois 0.9 · actual Northern Illinois 10
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Ohio @ Central MichiganFinal 27–25
Model
pred Ohio 1.2 · actual Ohio 2
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 1.0 · closer
Ball State @ Kent StateFinal 37–35
Model
pred Ball State 10.0 · actual Ball State 2
winner Ball State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Toledo @ BuffaloFinal 15–30
Model
pred Toledo 25.3 · actual Buffalo 15
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 40.3 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.