CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 6 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Mid-American · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–175%
ATS vs close
2–1 · 1P67%
Model margin MAE
5.6
Market margin MAE
5.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ Northern IllinoisFinal 20–34
Model
pred Northern Illinois 11.4 · actual Northern Illinois 14
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +14.0Push
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ ToledoFinal 20–30
Model
pred Toledo 11.0 · actual Toledo 10
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Western Michigan @ Ball StateFinal 45–42
Model
pred Ball State 3.3 · actual Western Michigan 3
winner Ball State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Bowling Green @ AkronFinal 27–20
Model
pred Bowling Green 19.5 · actual Bowling Green 7
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.5 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.