CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 5 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Mid-American · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–189%
ATS vs close
4–3 · 1P57%
Model margin MAE
13.2
Market margin MAE
13.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Ball State @ James MadisonFinal 7–63
Model
pred James Madison 22.9 · actual James Madison 56
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 33.1 · mkt 34.0 · closer
Akron @ OhioFinal 10–30
Model
pred Ohio 18.4 · actual Ohio 20
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -8.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Massachusetts @ Miami (OH)Final 20–23
Model
pred Miami (OH) 17.6 · actual Miami (OH) 3
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ Bowling GreenFinal 30–27
Model
pred Bowling Green 7.7 · actual Old Dominion 3
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Western Michigan @ MarshallFinal 20–27
Model
pred Marshall 4.4 · actual Marshall 7
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Buffalo @ UConnFinal 3–47
Model
pred UConn 4.2 · actual UConn 44
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.8 · mkt 38.0 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ Central MichiganFinal 21–22
Model
pred Central Michigan 2.5 · actual Central Michigan 1
winner Central Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 1.5 · tie
Northern Illinois @ NC StateFinal 17–24
Model
pred NC State 1.9 · actual NC State 7
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +7.0Push
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ Kent StateFinal 52–33
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 9.3 · actual Eastern Michigan 19
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.