CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 3 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 3 backtest · Mid-American · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
2–4 · 1P33%
Model margin MAE
19.8
Market margin MAE
17.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ TennesseeFinal 0–71
Model
pred Tennessee 48.9 · actual Tennessee 71
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +49.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.1 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ MiamiFinal 0–62
Model
pred Miami 26.3 · actual Miami 62
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +36.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.7 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ IllinoisFinal 9–30
Model
pred Illinois 21.7 · actual Illinois 21
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois -21.0Push
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Eastern MichiganFinal 34–37
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 6.8 · actual Eastern Michigan 3
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Cincinnati @ Miami (OH)Final 27–16
Model
pred Miami (OH) 3.3 · actual Cincinnati 11
winner Miami (OH) ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Mississippi StateFinal 41–17
Model
pred Toledo 7.8 · actual Toledo 24
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.2 · mkt 34.5 · closer
Massachusetts @ BuffaloFinal 3–34
Model
pred Massachusetts 14.7 · actual Buffalo 31
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 45.7 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.