CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Mid-American · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–370%
ATS vs close
5–550%
Model margin MAE
17.1
Market margin MAE
14.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Western Michigan @ Ohio StateFinal 0–56
Model
pred Ohio State 44.9 · actual Ohio State 56
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -37.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Buffalo @ MissouriFinal 0–38
Model
pred Missouri 42.2 · actual Missouri 38
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ Penn StateFinal 27–34
Model
pred Penn State 41.9 · actual Penn State 7
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -35.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.9 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ WashingtonFinal 9–30
Model
pred Washington 40.9 · actual Washington 21
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington -25.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.9 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ Notre DameFinal 16–14
Model
pred Notre Dame 34.4 · actual Northern Illinois 2
winner Notre Dame ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -28.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.4 · mkt 30.0 · mkt closer
Akron @ RutgersFinal 17–49
Model
pred Rutgers 20.3 · actual Rutgers 32
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.7 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ ToledoFinal 23–38
Model
pred Toledo 15.4 · actual Toledo 15
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Missouri State @ Ball StateFinal 34–42
Model
pred Ball State 8.5 · actual Ball State 8
winner Ball State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ Florida InternationalFinal 16–52
Model
pred Central Michigan 3.1 · actual Florida International 36
winner Central Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 39.1 · mkt 39.5 · closer
South Alabama @ OhioFinal 20–27
Model
pred South Alabama 6.2 · actual Ohio 7
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.