CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 15 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

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Week 15 backtest · Mid-American · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

0–10%

ATS vs close

0–10%

Model margin MAE

41.1

Market margin MAE

37.5

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Ohio @ Miami (OH)Final 38–3

Model

pred Miami (OH) 6.1 · actual Ohio 35

winner Miami (OH) ✗

ATS vs close

leaned Miami (OH) -2.5Miss ✗

margin err: model 41.1 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.