CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 14 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
11.3
Market margin MAE
9.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ BuffaloFinal 7–43
Model
pred Buffalo 16.6 · actual Buffalo 36
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ OhioFinal 21–42
Model
pred Ohio 14.2 · actual Ohio 21
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.8 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ Northern IllinoisFinal 16–24
Model
pred Northern Illinois 9.2 · actual Northern Illinois 8
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ Western MichiganFinal 18–26
Model
pred Western Michigan 7.0 · actual Western Michigan 8
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Miami (OH) @ Bowling GreenFinal 28–12
Model
pred Miami (OH) 1.7 · actual Miami (OH) 16
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 19.0 · closer
Toledo @ AkronFinal 14–21
Model
pred Toledo 17.8 · actual Akron 7
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.