CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 13 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–433%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
17.5
Market margin MAE
12.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Ohio @ ToledoFinal 24–7
Model
pred Toledo 12.3 · actual Ohio 17
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.3 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ Eastern MichiganFinal 37–20
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 5.0 · actual Buffalo 17
winner Eastern Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan -1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH)Final 9–20
Model
pred Miami (OH) 2.8 · actual Miami (OH) 11
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Akron @ Kent StateFinal 38–17
Model
pred Kent State 2.5 · actual Akron 21
winner Kent State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.5 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Central MichiganFinal 14–16
Model
pred Western Michigan 5.7 · actual Central Michigan 2
winner Western Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Bowling Green @ Ball StateFinal 38–13
Model
pred Bowling Green 10.6 · actual Bowling Green 25
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.4 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.