CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 12 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–0100%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
9.4
Market margin MAE
6.7
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ Miami (OH)Final 7–34
Model
pred Miami (OH) 21.6 · actual Miami (OH) 27
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +30.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.4 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ Northern IllinoisFinal 16–29
Model
pred Northern Illinois 19.2 · actual Northern Illinois 13
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.2 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ ToledoFinal 10–37
Model
pred Toledo 11.6 · actual Toledo 27
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Bowling GreenFinal 13–31
Model
pred Bowling Green 7.6 · actual Bowling Green 18
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ OhioFinal 10–35
Model
pred Ohio 7.5 · actual Ohio 25
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ BuffaloFinal 48–51
Model
pred Buffalo 1.5 · actual Buffalo 3
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.