CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Mid-American · 4 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–175%
ATS vs close
1–325%
Model margin MAE
13.9
Market margin MAE
11.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Northern Illinois @ Western MichiganFinal 42–28
Model
pred Western Michigan 1.3 · actual Northern Illinois 14
winner Western Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ Central MichiganFinal 23–13
Model
pred Bowling Green 9.2 · actual Bowling Green 10
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Ohio @ Kent StateFinal 41–0
Model
pred Ohio 10.6 · actual Ohio 41
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.4 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ Ball StateFinal 27–21
Model
pred Miami (OH) 15.3 · actual Miami (OH) 6
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.