CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 10 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

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Week 10 backtest · Mid-American · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

2–0100%

ATS vs close

1–150%

Model margin MAE

9.6

Market margin MAE

9.5

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Buffalo @ AkronFinal 41–30

Model

pred Buffalo 1.7 · actual Buffalo 11

winner Buffalo ✓

ATS vs close

leaned Buffalo -1.0Cover ✓

margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 10.0 · closer

Toledo @ Eastern MichiganFinal 29–28

Model

pred Toledo 10.8 · actual Toledo 1

winner Toledo ✓

ATS vs close

leaned Toledo -10.0Miss ✗

margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.