CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · Mid-American · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · Mid-American · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
6–0100%
Model margin MAE
7.5
Market margin MAE
7.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Akron @ Ohio StateFinal 6–52
Model
pred Ohio State 38.7 · actual Ohio State 46
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +49.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Kent State @ PittsburghFinal 24–55
Model
pred Pittsburgh 25.1 · actual Pittsburgh 31
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Western Michigan @ WisconsinFinal 14–28
Model
pred Wisconsin 21.5 · actual Wisconsin 14
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Ohio @ SyracuseFinal 22–38
Model
pred Syracuse 9.6 · actual Syracuse 16
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ NorthwesternFinal 6–13
Model
pred Northwestern 3.8 · actual Northwestern 7
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ MassachusettsFinal 28–14
Model
pred Massachusetts 0.8 · actual Eastern Michigan 14
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 16.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.