CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 12 · MVFC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS IndependentsMVFC
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 12 backtest · MVFC · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
34.7
Market margin MAE
24.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Missouri State @ North Dakota StateFinal 21–59
Model
pred North Dakota State 3.3 · actual North Dakota State 38
winner North Dakota State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.7 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.