CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 9 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 9 · 2 games

Navy @ Notre DameNotre Dame 96%

Model

Notre Dame -25.6 · mkt Notre Dame —

proj Navy 16.4 · Notre Dame 42.0

Total

proj 58.3

UConn @ Air ForceAir Force 57%

Model

Air Force -2.6 · mkt Air Force —

proj UConn 30.6 · Air Force 33.2

Total

proj 63.8

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.