CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 5 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price

Notre Dame @ North Carolina0.3 pt gap

Model vs mktNotre Dame -23.2 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5

LeanNorth Carolina +23.5

Best priceNorth Carolina +23.5 -110best of 1

WinNotre Dame 95%

Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 5 · 2 games

Notre Dame @ North CarolinaNotre Dame 95%

Model

Notre Dame -23.2 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5

proj Notre Dame 39.1 · North Carolina 16.0

leans North Carolina +23.5

◆ Mid 0

North Carolina +23.5 -110DraftKings

Notre Dame -23.5 -110DraftKings

Syracuse @ UConnUConn 66%

Model

UConn -5.9 · mkt UConn —

proj Syracuse 24.7 · UConn 30.6

Total

proj 55.3

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.