CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 4 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 4 · 2 games

UConn @ Miami (OH)UConn 66%

Model

UConn -5.7 · mkt UConn —

proj UConn 29.6 · Miami (OH) 23.9

Total

proj 53.4

Notre Dame @ PurdueNotre Dame 94%

Model

Notre Dame -22.5 · mkt Notre Dame —

proj Notre Dame 36.4 · Purdue 13.8

Total

proj 50.2

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.