CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

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Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 13 · 2 games

UConn @ WyomingUConn 74%

Model

UConn -9.3 · mkt UConn —

proj UConn 31.9 · Wyoming 22.6

Total

proj 54.6

Notre Dame @ SyracuseNotre Dame 96%

Model

Notre Dame -25.4 · mkt Notre Dame —

proj Notre Dame 32.2 · Syracuse 6.8

Total

proj 39.0

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.