CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 12 · 2 games
SMU @ Notre DameNotre Dame 83%
Model
Notre Dame -13.8 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj SMU 21.5 · Notre Dame 35.2
Total
proj 56.7
Old Dominion @ UConnUConn 54%
Model
UConn -1.3 · mkt UConn —
proj Old Dominion 28.2 · UConn 29.5
Total
proj 57.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.