CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 8 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
2–0100%
Model margin MAE
10.1
Market margin MAE
6.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
USC @ Notre DameFinal 24–34
Model
pred USC 0.4 · actual Notre Dame 10
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ Boston CollegeFinal 38–23
Model
pred UConn 5.3 · actual UConn 15
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 12.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.