CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 7 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

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Week 7 backtest · FBS Independents · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

1–0100%

ATS vs close

0–10%

Model margin MAE

9.8

Market margin MAE

5.5

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

NC State @ Notre DameFinal 7–36

Model

pred Notre Dame 19.2 · actual Notre Dame 29

winner Notre Dame ✓

ATS vs close

leaned NC State +23.5Miss ✗

margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.