CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 5 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
0–1 · 1P0%
Model margin MAE
22.8
Market margin MAE
18.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Notre Dame @ ArkansasFinal 56–13
Model
pred Arkansas 1.3 · actual Notre Dame 43
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 44.3 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ BuffaloFinal 20–17
Model
pred UConn 1.7 · actual UConn 3
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +3.0Push
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.