CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 4 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
16.7
Market margin MAE
8.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Ball State @ UConnFinal 25–31
Model
pred UConn 21.4 · actual UConn 6
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Purdue @ Notre DameFinal 30–56
Model
pred Notre Dame 8.0 · actual Notre Dame 26
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.