CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 3 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
10.8
Market margin MAE
9.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UConn @ DelawareFinal 41–44
Model
pred UConn 9.7 · actual Delaware 3
winner UConn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Texas A&M @ Notre DameFinal 41–40
Model
pred Texas A&M 9.8 · actual Texas A&M 1
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.