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2025 · Week 2 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · FBS Independents · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
1–0100%
Model margin MAE
2.3
Market margin MAE
0.3
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UConn @ SyracuseFinal 20–27
Model
pred Syracuse 4.7 · actual Syracuse 7
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +7.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 0.3 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.