CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 13 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
20.9
Market margin MAE
14.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Syracuse @ Notre DameFinal 7–70
Model
pred Notre Dame 26.5 · actual Notre Dame 63
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +36.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.5 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ Florida AtlanticFinal 48–45
Model
pred UConn 8.2 · actual UConn 3
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.