CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 12 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
8.4
Market margin MAE
6.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Air Force @ UConnFinal 16–26
Model
pred UConn 13.2 · actual UConn 10
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ PittsburghFinal 37–15
Model
pred Notre Dame 8.3 · actual Notre Dame 22
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.