CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 11 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 11 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
6.6
Market margin MAE
9.5
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Navy @ Notre DameFinal 10–49
Model
pred Notre Dame 30.4 · actual Notre Dame 39
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +30.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Duke @ UConnFinal 34–37
Model
pred UConn 7.5 · actual UConn 3
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 10.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.