CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 10 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 10 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
2–0100%
Model margin MAE
9.2
Market margin MAE
12.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UAB @ UConnFinal 19–38
Model
pred UConn 14.2 · actual UConn 19
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Notre Dame @ Boston CollegeFinal 25–10
Model
pred Notre Dame 28.5 · actual Notre Dame 15
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +31.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 16.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.