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2025 · Week 1 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · FBS Independents · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
8.3
Market margin MAE
5.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Notre Dame @ MiamiFinal 24–27
Model
pred Notre Dame 5.3 · actual Miami 3
winner Notre Dame ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.