CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 8 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Week 8 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

1–150%

ATS vs close

1–150%

Model margin MAE

7.6

Market margin MAE

2.3

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Wake Forest @ UConnFinal 23–20

Model

pred UConn 4.9 · actual Wake Forest 3

winner UConn ✗

ATS vs close

leaned UConn +2.5Miss ✗

margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer

Notre Dame @ Georgia TechFinal 31–13

Model

pred Notre Dame 25.4 · actual Notre Dame 18

winner Notre Dame ✓

ATS vs close

leaned Notre Dame -14.0Cover ✓

margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.