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2024 · Week 7 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
16.2
Market margin MAE
17.3
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Stanford @ Notre DameFinal 7–49
Model
pred Notre Dame 26.7 · actual Notre Dame 42
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Missouri @ MassachusettsFinal 45–3
Model
pred Missouri 24.9 · actual Missouri 42
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +27.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.1 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.