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2024 · Week 6 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
0–1 · 1P0%
Model margin MAE
7.0
Market margin MAE
4.3
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Temple @ UConnFinal 20–29
Model
pred UConn 20.5 · actual UConn 9
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.5 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ Northern IllinoisFinal 20–34
Model
pred Northern Illinois 11.4 · actual Northern Illinois 14
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +14.0Push
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.