CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 5 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · FBS Independents · 3 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–0100%
ATS vs close
1–233%
Model margin MAE
18.3
Market margin MAE
17.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ Miami (OH)Final 20–23
Model
pred Miami (OH) 17.6 · actual Miami (OH) 3
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Louisville @ Notre DameFinal 24–31
Model
pred Notre Dame 7.6 · actual Notre Dame 7
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ UConnFinal 3–47
Model
pred UConn 4.2 · actual UConn 44
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.8 · mkt 38.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.