CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · FBS Independents · 3 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–167%
ATS vs close
1–233%
Model margin MAE
35.6
Market margin MAE
30.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UConn @ DukeFinal 21–26
Model
pred Duke 27.5 · actual Duke 5
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ BuffaloFinal 3–34
Model
pred Massachusetts 14.7 · actual Buffalo 31
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 45.7 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ PurdueFinal 66–7
Model
pred Notre Dame 20.4 · actual Notre Dame 59
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 38.6 · mkt 51.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.