CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 2 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

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Week 2 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

1–150%

ATS vs close

1–150%

Model margin MAE

18.4

Market margin MAE

16.3

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Northern Illinois @ Notre DameFinal 16–14

Model

pred Notre Dame 34.4 · actual Northern Illinois 2

winner Notre Dame ✗

ATS vs close

leaned Notre Dame -28.0Miss ✗

margin err: model 36.4 · mkt 30.0 · mkt closer

Massachusetts @ ToledoFinal 23–38

Model

pred Toledo 15.4 · actual Toledo 15

winner Toledo ✓

ATS vs close

leaned Massachusetts +17.5Cover ✓

margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 2.5 · closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.