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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 14 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
4.2
Market margin MAE
5.8
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UConn @ MassachusettsFinal 47–42
Model
pred UConn 10.8 · actual UConn 5
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ USCFinal 49–35
Model
pred Notre Dame 11.4 · actual Notre Dame 14
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 7.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.