CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 13 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · FBS Independents · 3 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–0100%
ATS vs close
2–167%
Model margin MAE
7.2
Market margin MAE
9.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ GeorgiaFinal 21–59
Model
pred Georgia 43.0 · actual Georgia 38
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -42.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Army @ Notre DameFinal 14–49
Model
pred Notre Dame 18.9 · actual Notre Dame 35
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.1 · mkt 20.5 · closer
UConn @ SyracuseFinal 24–31
Model
pred Syracuse 7.6 · actual Syracuse 7
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 3.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.