CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 12 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

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Week 12 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

2–0100%

ATS vs close

1–150%

Model margin MAE

11.7

Market margin MAE

8.0

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Virginia @ Notre DameFinal 14–35

Model

pred Notre Dame 20.2 · actual Notre Dame 21

winner Notre Dame ✓

ATS vs close

leaned Virginia +21.5Cover ✓

margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer

Liberty @ MassachusettsFinal 35–34

Model

pred Liberty 23.5 · actual Liberty 1

winner Liberty ✓

ATS vs close

leaned Liberty -16.5Miss ✗

margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.