CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
17.8
Market margin MAE
12.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida State @ Notre DameFinal 3–52
Model
pred Notre Dame 17.3 · actual Notre Dame 49
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +25.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.7 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ UABFinal 31–23
Model
pred UConn 4.1 · actual UConn 8
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.