CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 10 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCAmerican AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 10 backtest · FBS Independents · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
0–1 · 1P0%
Model margin MAE
6.5
Market margin MAE
2.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ Mississippi StateFinal 20–45
Model
pred Mississippi State 15.0 · actual Mississippi State 25
winner Mississippi State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ UConnFinal 27–34
Model
pred UConn 3.9 · actual UConn 7
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +7.0Push
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.