CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · FBS Independents · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · FBS Independents · 3 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–233%
ATS vs close
3–0100%
Model margin MAE
15.9
Market margin MAE
17.7
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UConn @ MarylandFinal 7–50
Model
pred Maryland 20.7 · actual Maryland 43
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -19.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.3 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ MassachusettsFinal 28–14
Model
pred Massachusetts 0.8 · actual Eastern Michigan 14
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Notre Dame @ Texas A&MFinal 23–13
Model
pred Texas A&M 0.5 · actual Notre Dame 10
winner Texas A&M ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 12.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.