CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 9 · 5 games
Sam Houston @ Missouri StateMissouri State 84%
Model
Missouri State -14.2 · mkt Missouri State —
proj Sam Houston 21.4 · Missouri State 35.6
Total
proj 57.0
Delaware @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 82%
Model
Western Kentucky -13.0 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Delaware 20.4 · Western Kentucky 33.5
Total
proj 53.9
Florida International @ LibertyLiberty 65%
Model
Liberty -5.5 · mkt Liberty —
proj Florida International 23.9 · Liberty 29.4
Total
proj 53.2
Kennesaw State @ Middle TennesseeKennesaw State 54%
Model
Kennesaw State -1.3 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 26.9 · Middle Tennessee 25.6
Total
proj 52.5
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico StateJacksonville State 69%
Model
Jacksonville State -6.9 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Jacksonville State 32.0 · New Mexico State 25.2
Total
proj 57.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.