CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 8 · 4 games
Middle Tennessee @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 71%
Model
Florida International -8.0 · mkt Florida International —
proj Middle Tennessee 24.5 · Florida International 32.5
Total
proj 57.0
Liberty @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 56%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.1 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Liberty 25.5 · Kennesaw State 27.6
Total
proj 53.2
Missouri State @ DelawareDelaware 53%
Model
Delaware -1.2 · mkt Delaware —
proj Missouri State 25.7 · Delaware 26.9
Total
proj 52.5
New Mexico State @ Sam HoustonNew Mexico State 54%
Model
New Mexico State -1.4 · mkt New Mexico State —
proj New Mexico State 27.9 · Sam Houston 26.5
Total
proj 54.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.