CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 7 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 7 · 4 games

Florida International @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 68%

Model

Jacksonville State -6.7 · mkt Jacksonville State —

proj Florida International 24.4 · Jacksonville State 31.1

Total

proj 55.6

Delaware @ Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee 62%

Model

Middle Tennessee -4.2 · mkt Middle Tennessee —

proj Delaware 25.1 · Middle Tennessee 29.3

Total

proj 54.4

Kennesaw State @ Missouri StateKennesaw State 56%

Model

Kennesaw State -2.3 · mkt Kennesaw State —

proj Kennesaw State 26.4 · Missouri State 24.1

Total

proj 50.5

Western Kentucky @ Sam HoustonWestern Kentucky 92%

Model

Western Kentucky -20.2 · mkt Western Kentucky —

proj Western Kentucky 38.8 · Sam Houston 18.6

Total

proj 57.5

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.