CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 6 · 4 games
Sam Houston @ LibertyLiberty 89%
Model
Liberty -17.3 · mkt Liberty —
proj Sam Houston 17.4 · Liberty 34.6
Total
proj 52.0
Missouri State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 83%
Model
Western Kentucky -13.5 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Missouri State 20.2 · Western Kentucky 33.6
Total
proj 53.8
New Mexico State @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 77%
Model
Florida International -10.4 · mkt Florida International —
proj New Mexico State 23.0 · Florida International 33.3
Total
proj 56.3
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 53%
Model
Kennesaw State -1.2 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Jacksonville State 26.6 · Kennesaw State 27.8
Total
proj 54.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.